Critical minerals underpin the UK’s economy, technology, energy transition and industrial resilience. Criticality assessments are widely used to identify the commodities with the highest risk of supply disruption and associated economic impacts. The resulting lists of ‘critical minerals’ increasingly guide national and regional strategies for investment, industrial development and supply-chain resilience.

In 2024, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by BGS, published its updated UK Criticality Assessment, supported by an improved and more transparent methodology. This assessment used available data covering the last five to ten years and was complemented by several foresight studies on key decarbonisation technologies and the UK’s demand for critical raw materials up to 2050.

, released by CMIC, evaluates a series of methodological enhancements through improved quantification of economic importance, including trade restrictions and expanded considerations for environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The report has been designed to help tailor future UK criticality assessments to the structure of the UK economy, its trade profile and strategic industrial sectors more closely. 

The report makes five recommendations that should be implemented into the next UK criticality assessment to add further value and benefit:

• better tracking of critical raw materials’ market stability and transparency
• three new indicators to improve measurement of the importance of materials to the UK economy and their flow through the whole domestic supply chain
• accounting for geopolitical risk in trade by considering any interventionist history of trading partners
• expansion of the supply-chain monitoring capacity to the midstream sector
• addition of climate vulnerability to the ESG indicator

Together, these enhancements will deliver a more comprehensive and policy-relevant understanding of criticality, particularly by improving the visibility of midstream supply-chain risks. For import-reliant nations like the UK that have limited upstream production, accurate tracking of intermediate and manufactured product flows is essential to understanding true supply dependencies and points of intervention.

The new indicators will be rigorously tested through sensitivity analyses in the next assessment cycle, including retrospective evaluation against 2024’s results. 

This report strengthens the UK’s critically assessment by integrating market dynamics, supply-chain interdependencies, geopolitical risks and climate vulnerabilities through multiple complementary indicators. Material flow characterisation strengthens trade-based indicators, while the integration of climate vulnerability into the ESG criteria addresses a critical gap with minimal methodological disruption. Corporate concentration and production forecasting were also evaluated and deemed to offer the best value for targeted, deep-dive analyses and potential stress-testing of industry supply chains, but data limitations prevent systematic application in criticality assessments.

The result is a more granular, evidence-based understanding of how different materials exhibit criticality, whether through market opacity, supply-chain centrality, geopolitical concentration, or climate exposure, enabling tailored intervention strategies matched to specific material risk profiles rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director of CMIC.

The Mineral Exploration and Investment Grants Act 1972 (MEIGA) provided a stimulus for mineral exploration in the UK. Under the Act, the Government’s Department of Trade and Industry gave grants for mineral exploration for non-ferrous metals, fluorspar, barium minerals and potash. Compiled largely during the 1970s and 1980s, reports detailing the exploration undertaken contain a rich variety of information, including geological mapping, soil and stream sediment geochemistry, geophysical surveys, drillcore logs and assay data.

Previously, these ‘MEIGA’ reports were only available to view in hard copy through BGS’s National Geoscience Data Centre (NGDC). In 2023, a digitisation programme, carried out in collaboration with the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), released an initial batch of over 200 . A further release of digitised reports this year (2026) has meant that an additional 660 reports have been added to the accessible collection, ensuring that data collected over forty years ago is openly available and newly relevant for identifying critical and precious metal resource potential within the UK.

The significance of this release is already being demonstrated in the Ardlochan area of south-west Scotland. At the end of 2025, completed a in the area, which discovered a large, vertical tube of broken rock (a ‘breccia pipe’ system) that was at least 140 m wide and rich in gold. The company then drew on MEIGA materials, originally generated by exploration companies Noranda Mining Limited and Phelps Dodge in the 1970s and 1980s, to complement its own surveys and recent drilling in order to target other sites of interest.

The MEIGA dataset for Ardlochan is already playing a key role in refining a new generation of exploration targets, especially those associated with gold-rich porphyry–breccia systems. A major advantage of the datasets is that they capture Ardlochan at a time when the area was largely unforested. This allowed for far more detailed bedrock mapping than is possible today and provides a clearer geological framework from which to work.

Just as importantly, the reports offer insight into the exploration concepts and decision making used by major operators in the 1970s and 1980s. These companies invested heavily in systematic regional work, identifying features and prospects that were subsequently forgotten as corporate priorities shifted. Integrating these historic insights with modern techniques is enabling us to rebuild the geological story of Ardlochan and accelerate target development with a level of confidence that would not otherwise be possible.

Calum Lyell, Western Gold Exploration.

Exploration can be very expensive and uncertain, often requiring companies to repeat baseline surveys to establish context. By providing open access to MEIGA reports, BGS (through CMIC and the NGDC) is helping to reduce duplicate efforts, enabling more targeted investment. For smaller firms, this pre-competitive data supports innovation and lowers barriers to entry.

The digitisation of BGS archive documents is a major effort in valorising legacy datasets that can have a major impact at minimal cost for the exploration sector. We are continuously working towards refining accessibility to these documents, notably applying various machine learning methods to automate the extraction of data contained in these pages to make them publicly available, as well as developing large language models for personalised, one-to-one interaction with the archived volumes.

Pierre Josso, deputy director, CMIC.

For the National Geoscience Data Centre, the renewed impact of the MEIGA archive demonstrates exactly why long‑term stewardship of geoscience data matters. Historic materials only realise their full value when they are preserved, digitised and made accessible. Funding the systematic scanning of these legacy collections is essential not only to safeguard the record, but also to ensure that insights captured decades ago can actively inform modern exploration, reduce duplication of effort and unlock new scientific and economic opportunities. The success at Ardlochan shows that well‑curated archives don’t just tell the story of past work; they directly enable the discoveries of today.

Alison Steven, data operations and governance lead, NGDC at BGS.

Natural hydrogen gas is generated through a range of geochemical and biochemical reactions within rock formations. It has recently gained significant attention as a potential clean energy source following discoveries of natural hydrogen accumulations and seeps in multiple parts of the world. Whilst hydrogen already has many real-world applications, including metal treatment, fertiliser production and chemical manufacturing, interest is increasingly being driven by the need for cleaner fuels as it does not produce carbon emissions when it is burned.

There is still much that scientists need to understand about how natural hydrogen systems evolve over time, including the relationships between subsurface rocks and the minerals, fluids and microbes that determine the potential for generation, transport and accumulation at scales required for commercial applications.

To improve our understanding of this natural resource, BGS scientists have recently undertaken research on rock samples from a hydrogen-generating system using the in Harwell, UK. The Diamond Light Source is the UK’s national synchrotron science facility and is capable of generating very intense light that is 10 billion times brighter than the Sun. Such bright light, mainly in the form of X-rays, enabled BGS scientists and collaborators from the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) and the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences to study hydrogen-generating processes down to the atomic scale.

The samples were collected from several areas within an ophiolite-hosted natural hydrogen system in Zambales, Philippines, as part of a project undertaken by PNRI scientists (Aquino et al., 2025). Surface-hydrogen flux measurements in bubbling springs and seeps from this area represent some of the highest natural fluxes reported in the world, pointing to a potentially significant hydrogen resource.

Using the unique capabilities at the Diamond Light Source has been a great opportunity to investigate the behaviour of key elements in hydrogen seep systems at an unprecedented level of detail. This is an important step towards understanding the drivers of natural hydrogen generation in ophiolitic environments, not only in the Philippines but worldwide, helping to identify where similar resources may occur and how they could be evaluated.

Dr Ruth Delina-Agillon, BGS experimental geochemist and principal investigator of the research conducted at the Diamond Light Source.

We anticipate that our new, atomic-scale data will provide a better understanding of the geochemical controls driving the hydrogen-generation process. The datasets are currently being analysed in detail ahead of publication. These findings will be relevant to other, geologically similar systems worldwide, supporting coordinated international efforts to identify and prioritise sites for data-driven exploration.

Acknowledgment

The Diamond Light Source is acknowledged for access to the I20 beamline under proposal 42859 and Dr Shusaku Hayama is thanked for assistance during the experiment.

The Diamond Light Source facility is funded by UK Research and Innovation through the Science and Technology Facilities Council and by the Wellcome Trust.

More information

Find out more about our natural hydrogen research on the BGS website.

Demand for critical minerals is rapidly increasing in response to the global transition to net zero, with UK demand for lithium predicted to quadruple by 2050. To secure future supply, the UK has set ambitious recycling targets for critical minerals.

New analysis from the , hosted by the British Geological Survey (BGS), provides a detailed assessment of the UK’s future demand and secondary supply availability for the key technology metals that are required for green energy technologies and electric transportation.

By 2035, the Government aims to meet 20 per cent of annual critical mineral demand through , also known as secondary supply or the circular economy. However, the new research also highlights that, within this timeframe, only a small number of critical minerals used in photovoltaic technologies are expected to be found in sufficient quantities to theoretically reach or exceed this ambition. The prospects improve dramatically, however, when the timescale is extended out to 2050, as increasing availability of end-of-life material is forecast to meet or exceed domestic demand for several critical minerals.

The assessment found that, between 2040 and 2050, ‘secondary’ raw material availability could provide:

• more than 60 per cent of the cumulative demand for battery metals
• more than 85 per cent of the cumulative demand for the rare earth elements (REEs) used in magnets (neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium)
• more than 90 per cent of the cumulative demand for silver and 75 per cent for tin used in photovoltaics (solar panels)

Although secondary supply has the potential to offset primary demand after 2040, the rapid growth of electric vehicles, wind turbines and photovoltaics means that, in the short term, primary supply (that is extracted directly from the ground) will remain essential to meet growth sectors, fill supply gaps and account for unavoidable material losses or non-recovery. This includes continued reliance on imports of lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper and REEs, and highlights the importance of supply chain diversification, responsible sourcing and strategic international partnerships. 

The report highlights that investment, capacity building, development of reverse supply chains and further data supporting the circular economy will be required to support the UK’s transition toward secure, resilient supplies of critical minerals and technology metals and to realise the long-term supply potential available through recovery and recycling.

This study demonstrates that secondary supply of technology metals has the potential to become a major contributor to UK material security. Our research shows that several elements will approach or exceed anticipated domestic demand by mid-century.

However, realising this potential will depend on several factors, including clear policy direction on technology metals recovery, investment in recycling and refining infrastructure and the development of integrated reverse supply chains and skilled labour.

Primary supply will remain essential but, with timely and coordinated action, the UK can build a more resilient, circular and secure critical materials system capable of supporting its 2050 net zero ambitions.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, principal mineral commodity expert at BGS.

The report ‘’ is available to download from the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre website.

Detailed subsurface information is required to increase the uptake of geothermal energy technologies. Geothermal energy, including ground source heat pumps, can contribute to energy security and to clean energy such as decarbonised heating.

The second version of the includes the addition of nearly 14 000 more data points derived from 1800 sites to inform geothermal assessments. The digital release contains validated intellectual property rights and datasets from BGS-authored papers, new BGS thermal conductivity laboratory measurements and a bottom-hole temperature dataset from the UK Onshore Geophysical Library.

The data release comprises a series of  and an accompanying that can be accessed for use under the Open Government Licence, with the acknowledgement ‘Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026’. This data adds to the openly available geothermal data, models and information already contained within the and .

The open release of the second digital version of the UK geothermal catalogue further adds to over 90 datasets and more than 60 reports that have been available on the since August 2025. The data informs the feasibility stages of project developments, supporting the growth of the geothermal energy sector. The user guide describes the data sources and the acknowledged limitations with legacy datasets that are included.

Dr Alison Monaghan, head of BGS Geothermal.

In 2025, BGS launched the UK Geothermal Platform, which provides national- to local-scale information on geothermal potential across shallow and deep technology options. The platform draws together diverse information and synthesises it to deliver the information needed by heat policy, heat networks, the national zoning model and planning specialists. Towns, cities and industrial sites can be assessed for the potential to retrofit geothermal technology and new development zones can be quickly assessed for strategic use of geothermal energy from the start of the development or planning cycle.

The Giant’s Causeway, located in Country Antrim, Northern Ireland, is one of the UK’s most instantly recognisable natural landmarks. The distinctive columnar landscape was formed during intense volcanic activity which forced molten rock up through cracks in the earth. Thick lava flows then cooled, contracted and cracked, creating around 40 000 basalt columns that are renowned for across the world.

Research by the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland (GSNI) and the British Geological Survey (BGS), has changed our scientific understanding of Northern Ireland’s volcanic past including the Giant’s Causeway, revealing that that volcanic rocks of the region formed in just 5.5 million years – this is 8 million years less than previous estimates.

Using state of the art techniques, scientists have been able to reconstruct a new timeline for volcanic activity across Northern Ireland. It now firmly connects the Earth processes that caused the development of the Giant’s Causeway and the broader Antrim Plateau area, along with the Mourne Mountains and Slieve Gullion, to a globally significant volcanic event seen in rocks as far away as Greenland and known as the North Atlantic Igneous Province around 60 million years ago.

The Giant’s Causeway is one of the world’s most instantly recognisable landmarks. For decades, it was believed the region’s volcanic activity, responsible for the Giant’s Causeway, stretched over 13.5 million years during a time period we refer to as the Paleogene. Our research shows that this activity was far more concentrated, with geological processes acting much faster than previously thought. These findings have completely changed how we understand the Northern Ireland’s place in the wider North Atlantic volcanic story.

Prof Mark Cooper, GSNI Chief Geologist.

Cutting-edge analysis has allowed us, for the first time, to place the volcanic activity that led to the formation of the Giant’s Causeway within a much more precise global context. It’s a remarkable reminder that the iconic 40 000 basalt columns that we can still see today in Northern Ireland can also help us to understand the globally impacting geological transformations during the Paleogene period.

Dr Simon Tapster, Geochronologist at the British Geological Survey.

This work is part of a wider initiative at the British Geological Survey to improve the understanding of the UK’s geology through better quantifying geological time in the rocks around us.

The research paper, , is now available to read.

Shrink–swell ground movement, typically reported as subsidence, is one of the most damaging geohazards in the UK today. Many soils contain clay minerals that absorb water and swell when they get wet, then lose water and shrink as they dry out. This natural hazard presents a significant and growing economic cost.

In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. As a result, subsidence-related insurance claims in the UK totalled £153 million in the first six months of 2025 (). With climate change projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink–swell is on the rise.

New maps produced by BGS form part of the BGS GeoClimate Shrink–Swell dataset. The dataset combines 1:50 000-scale geological maps of Great Britain with the highest-resolution climate change data from the , which is derived from and builds upon the Met Office’s . The new release improves upon previous iterations by providing outputs for low, medium and high emissions scenarios, with additional projected time intervals between the present day and 2070.

The dataset has been designed to help local authorities, developers and planners mitigate the risk posed by shrink–swell subsidence specific to their region. It will enable them to reduce exposure to potentially high remediation costs, support conveyancing reporters in identifying potential subsidence hazards affecting properties and allow financial organisations such as mortgage lenders and insurers to assess their portfolios for climate change-related risks.

The new dataset evaluates underlying geological conditions against three representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, each of which are based on varying levels of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Under the medium emissions scenario, the projected percentage of British properties highly likely or extremely likely to be susceptible to clay shrink–swell by 2070 is around 5 per cent, which equates to over 1.8 million properties. The number rises to 11 per cent, or just over 4.2 million properties, under the higher emissions scenario.

The dataset forecasts that, by 2070:

• over 4.2 million properties could be affected under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, which is the most pessimistic scenario
• around 500 000 properties could be affected under the low emissions scenario RCP 2.6, which is the emissions scenario aligned to the
• over 1.8 million properties could be affected under the medium emissions scenario RCP 4.5; current global emissions trajectories are closest to this intermediate scenario 

The data also shows that the most susceptible regions are found in highly populated parts of London, particularly in northern and central boroughs including Camden, Islington and Barnet, as well as in Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected by shrink–swell in London will exceed 26 per cent by 2070 and could be as high as 54 per cent under the high emissions emission scenario, with over 2.5 million properties in the capital highly likely or extremely likely to be affected.

By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink–swell subsidence in the future.
Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink–swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.

Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist, BGS.

Shrink–swell subsidence can lead to financial loss for anyone involved in the development, ownership, insurance or management of property, major infrastructure works and utilities, including developers, mortgage lenders, insurers, homeowners, transport authorities and local and national governments. These costs can lead to increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property, replacement of utility pipeworks and unstable transport infrastructure.

Whilst we should be careful to note that these are projections, there are a number of ways planners, property owners and developers can help limit the potential effects of future subsidence-related issues, including taking specialist advice before starting major building work, avoiding planting trees with larger root systems close to properties, and ensuring the foundation designs of new constructions or extensions take into account the impact of climate change on shrinkable clays.
Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist, BGS.

 
Premium information is available through GeoClimate Shrink–Swell, which includes projections for average, wetter and drier climate conditions based on low, medium and higher emissions scenarios across variable time periods. 

Ukraine and the UK have reaffirmed their strategic partnership with the signing of a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on geological science and resource development. The agreement underscores a shared commitment to Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery while deepening bilateral ties. Amid increasing global demand for critical minerals essential for technologies such as renewable energy systems, batteries and electronics, it also signals a growing focus on the role of natural resources in strengthening economic resilience and energy security.

The MoU focuses on expanding collaboration between the geological surveys of both the UK and Ukraine in areas such as digital transformation, research and institutional capacity strengthening. By enhancing cooperation across these areas, both countries aim to improve their understanding of geological resources while fostering more effective and modern approaches to managing them.

The MoU also coincides with the presentation of Ukraine’s new Critical Minerals Strategy, which the UK helped to develop, further demonstrating its commitment to Ukraine’s long-term economic and industrial future.

The MoU represents far more than a formal partnership. At a time when global challenges demand collective action, the strengthening of scientific and technical ties between our institutions is both timely and essential. This agreement reflects our shared belief that science can be a powerful bridge between countries and our shared commitment to not only scientific excellence but also growth, resilience and long-term prosperity.

Dr Maggy Heintz, director of BGS International Geoscience