Shrink–swell ground movement, typically reported as subsidence, is one of the most damaging geohazards in the UK today. Many soils contain clay minerals that absorb water and swell when they get wet, then lose water and shrink as they dry out. This natural hazard presents a significant and growing economic cost.

In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. As a result, subsidence-related insurance claims in the UK totalled £153 million in the first six months of 2025 (). With climate change projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink–swell is on the rise.

New maps produced by BGS form part of the BGS GeoClimate Shrink–Swell dataset. The dataset combines 1:50 000-scale geological maps of Great Britain with the highest-resolution climate change data from the , which is derived from and builds upon the Met Office’s . The new release improves upon previous iterations by providing outputs for low, medium and high emissions scenarios, with additional projected time intervals between the present day and 2070.

The dataset has been designed to help local authorities, developers and planners mitigate the risk posed by shrink–swell subsidence specific to their region. It will enable them to reduce exposure to potentially high remediation costs, support conveyancing reporters in identifying potential subsidence hazards affecting properties and allow financial organisations such as mortgage lenders and insurers to assess their portfolios for climate change-related risks.

The new dataset evaluates underlying geological conditions against three representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, each of which are based on varying levels of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Under the medium emissions scenario, the projected percentage of British properties highly likely or extremely likely to be susceptible to clay shrink–swell by 2070 is around 5 per cent, which equates to over 1.8 million properties. The number rises to 11 per cent, or just over 4.2 million properties, under the higher emissions scenario.

The dataset forecasts that, by 2070:

• over 4.2 million properties could be affected under the high emissions scenario RCP 8.5, which is the most pessimistic scenario
• around 500 000 properties could be affected under the low emissions scenario RCP 2.6, which is the emissions scenario aligned to the
• over 1.8 million properties could be affected under the medium emissions scenario RCP 4.5; current global emissions trajectories are closest to this intermediate scenario 

The data also shows that the most susceptible regions are found in highly populated parts of London, particularly in northern and central boroughs including Camden, Islington and Barnet, as well as in Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected by shrink–swell in London will exceed 26 per cent by 2070 and could be as high as 54 per cent under the high emissions emission scenario, with over 2.5 million properties in the capital highly likely or extremely likely to be affected.

By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink–swell subsidence in the future.
Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink–swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.

Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist, BGS.

Shrink–swell subsidence can lead to financial loss for anyone involved in the development, ownership, insurance or management of property, major infrastructure works and utilities, including developers, mortgage lenders, insurers, homeowners, transport authorities and local and national governments. These costs can lead to increased insurance premiums, depressed house prices and, in some cases, engineering works to stabilise land or property, replacement of utility pipeworks and unstable transport infrastructure.

Whilst we should be careful to note that these are projections, there are a number of ways planners, property owners and developers can help limit the potential effects of future subsidence-related issues, including taking specialist advice before starting major building work, avoiding planting trees with larger root systems close to properties, and ensuring the foundation designs of new constructions or extensions take into account the impact of climate change on shrinkable clays.
Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist, BGS.

 
Premium information is available through GeoClimate Shrink–Swell, which includes projections for average, wetter and drier climate conditions based on low, medium and higher emissions scenarios across variable time periods. 

The lowland tropical rainforests of South-east Asia are complex ecosystems best known for their evergreen forests dominated by the towering dipterocarp trees and unique wildlife. The rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems on the planet due to climate change, deforestation, logging and agriculture. Many key areas of South-east Asia are also located on the tectonically active Pacific Ring of Fire, which consists of a ‘ring’ of active volcanoes. Volcanic eruptions can be explosive, caused by pressure that has built up over time sending ash, rock and gas into the atmosphere. These eruptions can have an immediate destructive impact on the surrounding environment, negatively affecting forest systems; however, volcanic ash also contains nutrients such as phosphorus, which is essential for plant growth and productivity.  

Ancient environmental DNA

To understand the response and recovery of these tropical forest systems after a volcanic event, I am using lake-sediment cores to explore past records of volcanic activity and forest productivity.  

Lakes act like stores of environmental information, as the sediments found on lake floors are composed of organic and inorganic materials that have accumulated over time. These sediments can provide insights into past nutrient dynamics through geochemical analysis. By extracting ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA), which is genetic material derived from plant material and cells from animals and microorganisms, we can discover how forest biomes have responded to environmental change over time.  

Ancient environmental DNA is typically highly degraded, vulnerable to hydrolysis and oxidation, and easily contaminated by modern DNA. It is therefore crucial to work in a clean environment where the risk of contaminating the samples is minimal.  

Sample handling 

Before splitting the lake sediment core and subsamples for aeDNA extraction, it was first radiographically scanned at the Core Scanning Facility at the BGS campus in Keyworth, Nottinghamshire. Radiographic scanning was also carried out to identify past volcanic events without opening the core, to avoid any potential contamination. I then travelled with the lake sediment core from BGS to the Globe Institute, part of the Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences of the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, which specialises in geogenetics, for aeDNA extraction. 

The institute is located in the heart of Denmark’s capital city. It is surrounded by the Botanical Garden, the National Gallery for Arts, and the King’s Garden, where Rosenborg Castle is located. On arrival, you are met by one of the largest iron meteorites in the world, before entering the Centre for Geogenetics, where the clean aeDNA laboratories are.  

A strict protocol must be followed to avoid any form of modern contamination when working in these laboratories. This includes wearing a full protective outfit consisting of a hazmat suit, face mask, gloves, overshoes, extra protective sleeves and an extra pair of gloves. After suiting up for working the in laboratory, everything must be cleaned in bleach (and washed in ethanol afterwards). The selected samples and all laboratory equipment are then placed in a special clean fume hood, where the aeDNA can be extracted and prepared for sequencing.  

The core was not cut open until it arrived at the Globe Institute, where aeDNA samples were taken at 1 cm intervals using sterile syringes. The samples were taken from intervals pre-eruption, right after the eruption, and several intervals post-eruption, to help understand the forest system’s response to volcanic events. The selected samples were incubated overnight and purified the next day, after which the concentration was measured. Finally, the samples went through another preparation process, the crucial step that converts raw DNA into a library of adapter-ligated, standardised fragments that have been amplified to ensure enough copies are available for genetic sequencing.  

Next steps 

While the prepared DNA samples are awaiting sequencing, the final work for geochemical analysis and stable isotopes measurements is being completed at BGS’s laboratories back in Keyworth. These analyses will help explore the history of past nutrient inputs from volcanic events and improve our understanding of how such inputs influence the tropical rainforest system.  

Copenhagen, Denmark 

From working intensely in the laboratories to exploring the city surrounding the Globe Institute, I enjoyed my time in Copenhagen. It’s a vibrant city known for its blend of historic charm and modern design, exceptional cycling culture and world-class food. The city offers attractions like Tivoli Gardens, Amalienborg Slot (the royal castle), Nyhavn and Free Town Christiania, which are, in my opinion, places you must see while walking around with a Ristet med det hele (a hot dog with the works) and a cocio (Danish chocolate milk). And of course, you can never go wrong by entering one of the many bakeries to make the impossible decision of which pastry to choose… 

Thanks 

A big thank you goes to Dr Ana Prohaska for hosting me at the Globe Institute, training me in new skills in molecular biology, and giving me the tools to help me understand the processes of the work. Another big thanks must go to the rest of the team at the Globe Institute for making me feel a part of the group, even though I was only there for a short amount of time.  

The UK summer drought in 2022 produced significant speculation concerning how its termination could affect the national soil resource. It also highlighted a knowledge gap regarding the wider effects of drought on soil properties and functions in temperate soils. BGS scientists have contributed to a recently published review bringing relevant information together to address the knowledge gap and aid policymakers.

The paper focuses on agricultural and ecosystem drought in the UK, which is when soils experience dry periods that affect agriculture production and ecosystem function. However, each individual drought has its own characteristics with respect to length and intensity, with antecedent conditions particularly important to its overall impact.

Vegetation dieback is the most widely recognised effect of drought, often demonstrated in the media using satellite images. Questions frequently concentrate on crop yields, the impact of drought on food production and likely increases in retail prices. Another observable effect of drought in the UK (and globally) is that of soil cracking, which occurs when expansive clay minerals dehydrate and shrink, which may lead to undermining of foundations of houses and infrastructure. The process is of major economic consequence, with damage to infrastructure in the UK estimated at around £100 million a year, sometimes reaching £400 million in very dry years (Harrison et al., 2022).

Responses of soils and catchments to drought termination

Beyond the impact of drought on agricultural production and ecosystem function, a major concern is how the breakdown of soil may affect the soil resource in terms of runoff and potential erosion. This may influence surface-water quality through the transfer of sediment and nutrients. However, theoretically, dry soils should have the greatest potential for infiltration and, when the infiltration rate remains greater than the precipitation rate, erosion of the soil through the generation of runoff is less likely to occur. The response of both soils and catchments to drought termination in the short term will therefore initially be determined by the intensity and duration of precipitation, with intense storms more likely to generate conditions where rainfall exceeds infiltration capacity.

Impact of drought on soil properties

As we can have no long-term prior knowledge as to whether a drought will occur, evidence on how it affects soil properties is hard to obtain unless the drought coincides within the time frame of longer-term monitoring experiments of soil processes. However, experiments examining wetting and drying cycles provide some insight into the range of impacts on biological, chemical and physical processes in soils.

Infiltration depends heavily on soil structure, with many interactions occurring between the biological and physical components of the soil system, particularly in the production of sticky substances that help particles bind together in aggregates. The activity of bacterial and fungal communities in soil is generally negatively impacted by dry conditions and this may lead to some loss of soil structure, potentially affecting infiltration rates of precipitation. In addition, the activity of soil macroinvertebrates with body widths generally between 2 and 30 mm (such as earthworms, woodlice and millipedes) may decrease. These creatures are commonly seen as soil ecosystem engineers, as they create pathways for water drainage.

The biogeochemical cycles of major nutrients, including the production of greenhouse gases, may change due to the effects on the microbial communities that decompose organic matter. This can lead to flushes of nutrients and greenhouse gas emissions upon re-wetting.

Other effects may include:

• more pronounced shrink–swell behaviour than usual in soils containing expandable clays, leading to deep cracking and possible damage to infrastructure
• an increase in the water repellency of soils, particularly those soils high in organic matter, leading to greater surface runoff
• plant responses to drought that can severely reduce the plants’ protective effect, leaving soils exposed to erosion processes and degradation

Soil resilience to and recovery from drought

One focus of soil research in recent years has been exploring its resilience to and recovery from perturbations, of which drought is an obvious major one. ‘Resilience’ relates to the resistance (degree of change) coupled with the recovery (rate and extent) from a disturbance (Constanje et al., 2015).

The nature of precipitation, its intensity and frequency will help determine how soils initially respond to and recover after drought termination. It is likely that the physical, biological and chemical recovery from drought will happen over a variety of time scales, and some parts of the system may reflect an ongoing altered state.

The management of soil organic matter (SOM), a fundamental influence on soil moisture and structure, through cultivation practice and cropping will be important. Higher SOM concentrations offer greater resilience, at least in initial drought periods.  However, increased information is required regarding how biological soil communities, soil moisture dynamics and soil structure recover and how these affect biogeochemical cycles.

Conclusions

The paper reports on how the large number of interactions present between physical, chemical and biological soil properties helps explain soils’ response to drought. However, the results reviewed are drawn largely from experiments examining wetting and drying cycles.

Unlike UK ground and surface waters that have been continually monitored over historical periods, thus allowing assessment of the effects of droughts, soil data collected during actual drought periods from existing experiments are few. This means that knowledge relating to how key soil properties such as soil structure and biogeochemical cycling respond before, during and after a drought is needed for greater understanding. Collecting this data requires long-term experiments. The use of sensors, particularly to monitor soil moisture and shallow groundwater, along with the development of novel sensors could provide the basis of these experiments, allowing drought impacts to be placed into wider contexts.   

In addition, further gaps in our knowledge exist regarding soil water repellancy, the impact of wildfires on soils, multiple stressors (heat; moisture) and the effects of successive extreme events on soil systems, for example drought followed by flooding. On a planet that is experiencing more extreme climate events, addressing such questions will help identify actions that can be taken to build more resilient soil ecosystems.

The research paper, ‘’, is now available to read in full online. 

About the author

Dr Andrew Tye

Process geochemist

BGS Keyworth

Find out more

This project is investigating how the phosphorus content and phosphate oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O-PO₄) signatures in sediment cores change over time, to establish the value of this proxy for environmental reconstruction research. The research builds on a fellowship project between BGS and Loughborough University with Dr Savannah Worne, and is part of an ENVISION DTP PhD project at Lancaster University. 

The importance of phosphate oxygen isotopes

Normally, the bonds between phosphorus and oxygen in phosphate (PO₄^3-) are very stable and don’t break down easily under typical conditions on Earth. This means that oxygen isotopes within PO₄^3- remain unchanged, unless biological processes are involved. However, certain enzyme-driven reactions, both inside and outside cells, can break these bonds and allow oxygen isotopes to exchange with the surrounding water. This has led to the discovery of a temperature-dependent balance between water and PO₄^3- cycling, which can help scientists better understand how PO₄^3- is processed by living organisms.

Recent advances in analysing δ¹⁸O-PO₄ have made it easier to use them as indicators of biological cycling of inorganic PO₄^3-. Using modern water oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O-H₂O) data, we can calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium value for δ¹⁸O-PO₄, which reflects the complete biological turnover of phosphate.   

Applying this method to lake sediments is a new and innovative technique that builds on current soil methodologies and allows for past studies of phosphorus cycling. We expect that the δ¹⁸O-PO₄ value in the sediments will reflect the level of biological processing at the time of deposition, with values moving closer to equilibrium when PO₄^3- is utilised more. To date, there have only been rare applications of δ¹⁸O-PO₄ to lake sediments, with no prior applications to a lake sediment core. In part, this reflects the unknown preservation of the δ¹⁸O-PO₄ signature within the core over time.

Rutland Water

Rutland Water is one of the largest artificial reservoirs in Europe, located in the East Midlands. Spanning approximately 4200 acres, it was constructed in the 1970s to ensure a reliable water supply for the surrounding region. Over the years, the reservoir has evolved into a vital site for drinking water supply, wildlife conservation and recreational activities, drawing nature enthusiasts and visitors alike.  

A key part of the site is the Rutland Water Nature Reserve, which is composed of woods, grassland and meadows as well as eight shallow water lagoons, covering around 1000 hectares. Managed by Anglian Water and the Leicestershire and Rutland Wildlife Trust, this area of Rutland is internationally renowned for its rich biodiversity, with wetlands, woodlands and open waters providing habitats for a variety of wildlife species, including the famous ospreys. Our research aligns directly with the water quality management goals of the site, to ensure the ongoing sustainability of this unique environment.

Sampling and research activities

In collaboration with the Leicestershire and Rutland Wildlife Trust, we collected three sediment cores from a nutrient-rich lagoon in the Rutland Water Nature Reserve to study how phosphorus levels and the PO₄^3- oxygen values in lake sediments change over time.

The first core was cut into thin layers and analysed immediately to give us a baseline of current conditions. The other two cores were stored under different conditions for six months to see how much the phosphorus concentrations and isotope values might change over time. One core was sliced into layers before storage (exposing it to air), while the other was kept intact in its tube, mimicking in-lake preservation conditions. These two cores were treated with isotopically enriched water before storage, with the intention that the isotope label would appear in future data sets if biological activity persisted, even at depth. 

Preliminary discoveries

So far, the analysis of the first core has provided useful baseline results, by identifying four different pools that phosphorus is bound to: bioavailable, microbial, metal-bound and non-labile. The results hint at the varying stability of these phosphorus forms within the sediments.  This analysis also gives us an opportunity to improve our analytical methods.

Findings from the stored cores will be key to our understanding of how phosphorus in sediments behaves and changes over time, offering insights into nutrient cycling at Rutland Water. All of this data will be part of my ongoing PhD thesis.

About the author

Christopher Bengt is a PhD student enrolled at Lancaster University. His PhD is funded through the Envision Doctoral Training Partnership and the BGS University Funding Initiative.

With the combined risks of sea level rise, rising temperatures and an increased frequency of extreme weather events, the Philippines is one of the countries most at risk from the effects of climate change. In an effort to mitigate this threat, researchers from BGS, Ateneo de Manila University and the University of the Philippines will work together to deliver the results of hydrological research for the benefit of Filipino stakeholders.

Funded by the UK Department for Science Innovation and Technology’s International Science Partnerships Fund in partnership with the British Council, the ‘Philippine Hydro Hub’ project will build a new collaborative community of UK and Filipino academics to advance research on the hydrology of the Philippines. It will also ensure that research outputs can be used by stakeholders outside of the academic community by creating an open access, easy-to-use platform. The platform will provide access to the latest hydrological datasets, tools and models such as the .

Climate change affects both the natural ecosystem and agricultural productivity and large urban centres in the Philippines lie in coastal regions, where the population is particularly vulnerable to typhoons and sea-level rise. Through the hydro hub, the project aims to provide government agencies and local government units with essential data and improved tools for assessing the effects of climate change on surface and groundwater, enabling more effective use of resources and development of adaptation strategies.

As flood and drought events affect multiple sectors, there is the potential for wide-ranging benefits, including:

• water resource management
• agriculture
• economic development
• energy
• environment and natural resources
• housing and urban development
• tourism
• transportation and other infrastructure

Access to this essential data will support a sustainable water future for the Philippines and, ultimately, has the potential to save lives as the effects of extreme weather events increase.

Ensuring that hydrological research can benefit society in countries like the Philippines, where climate change affects the future water resources, is very important. This new partnership will advance hydrological science in the Philippines and provide new tools to regulators and managers to make decisions for a sustainable and resilient water future.

I am very excited to continue our collaboration with Ateneo de Manila University and establish a new collaboration with the University of the Philippines. This will allow us to shape past and future research activities in the Philippines to useful and usable products and tools for Filipino stakeholders.

Dr Johanna Scheidegger, project leader, BGS.

The project focuses on bridging the gap between professional water resource researchers and managers, and agencies with direct links to local communities. It will also build capacity and provide innovation opportunities within multiple sectors.

In the recent release of the 2024 World Risk Report, the Philippines continued to rank first as the most-at-risk country due to its ‘exposure to natural hazards, the susceptibility of the population and the coping and adaptive capacities of societies’.

As a Filipino and as an environmental scientist, I look forward to the Philippine Hydro Hub to build the capacity of Filipinos not only to conduct research on hydrology but to develop innovative solutions to manage our water resources and to develop our resilience to climate change as a Nation and as a society.

This renewed partnership with BGS and the new partnership with the University of the Philippines will indeed bridge the gap in understanding this crucial resource that has become both a blessing and a bane to the Philippines.

Maria Aileen Leah G Guzman, PhD, Department of Environmental Science, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University.

As presented in the National Water Quality Status Report (2014 to 2019) demand for sustainable water resources is on the rise throughout the country. Groundwater development is outpacing other sources nationwide as local government units search for sustainable sources to meet this growing demand.

As a hydrogeologist, I welcome this opportunity to support the Philippine Hydro Hub and build the capacity of Filipinos to advance hydrogeologic research and build innovative solutions for determining watershed capacity and improving water resource management to address these challenges and the social condition of equitable water access for all Filipinos.

The new partnership with BGS and Ateneo de Manila University is exciting to build translational research in support of this challenging issue and provide a linkage between academia, government and local stakeholders throughout the Philippines.

Robert Michael DiFilippo, PhD, National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines.

About the project

This work was supported by a Research Collaborations grant, ID [1203756621], under the . The grant is funded by the UK Department for Science Innovation and Technology in partnership with the British Council.

For more information

For more information, please contact the BGS Press Office (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.

Extreme weather events are projected to become more common in the UK, costing £750 million per year (Bates et al., 2023). A new, £38 million infrastructure project will enhance the UK’s resilience to floods and droughts and will include open-air laboratories across the UK and a large-scale, live environmental data bank.

The project, titled ‘’ (FDRI), will provide infrastructure to allow aspects of the hydrological cycle in specific locations in England, Scotland and Wales to be tracked. The data produced can be used alongside artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning technology to model present conditions and forecast the impact of extremes.

Improving our ability to analyse UK environmental data with models and AI will:

• improve the prediction of flood and drought risk
• enable the creation of better, more cost-effective infrastructure
• allow more accurate response to water supply demands

Monitoring activities will be coordinated and innovation better directed through the network that the FDRI project will create. It will also create a near real-time data bank with outdoor laboratories in three catchments: the Severn, the Chess (Thames) and the Tweed. This will be achieved by deploying instruments for observing subtle changes in the water environment, such as:

• evaporation
• soil moisture
• weather
• groundwater
• river flow

It will also provide new digital solutions to support data and help build capacity in the hydrological community through training and skills sharing.

We are delighted to be part of this landmark project, which will provide the UK with revolutionary solutions to reduce the impact of floods and droughts.

Each year, dealing with the impact of flooding and droughts costs the UK around £750 million. It is through increased resilience and advanced prediction capabilities that the nation can reduce this cost and better protect at-risk communities.

Alan MacDonald, head of BGS Groundwater.

Funding

The £38 million project has been awarded funding by the UKRI/Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). NERC and the UK Centre for Hydrology & Ecology will lead the project, with contributions from BGS, Imperial College London and the University of Bristol.

Earth’s changing climate is increasing the number of extreme floods and droughts, causing environmental, societal and economic damage. This investment will transform the way we can forecast these events by building data and monitoring capability.

NERC is helping to respond to climate challenges with research and innovation investments that will accelerate the green economy and deliver solutions to national priorities.

Prof Louise Heathwaite, executive chair of UKRI/NERC.

The project will work closely with organisations in the environmental and government sectors, including the Environment Agency, to build modelling and help prepare for severe weather.

Reference

Bates, P D, Savage, J, Wing, O, Quinn, N, Sampson, C, Neal, J, and Smith, A. 2023. . Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 23, 891–908. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023

Notes for editors

Farmers and whisky distillers could both be left increasingly high and dry as new research reveals how climate change is increasingly affecting water availability. In some areas, scientists found that surface water scarcity events, where river levels drop to significantly low levels, could increase dramatically from one every five years to every other year, or even more often. This potentially means there could be more bans on using these waters.

The data shows that April and May and late August into September are expected to become noticeably drier, potentially affecting crop yields and livestock gains.

Use of groundwater could provide a solution to increasing surface water shortages, but more information is needed on where and when such resources could prove a viable option. Summer groundwater levels have already been falling across several parts of the country and areas with low groundwater storage capacity and decreasing groundwater recharge are likely to become increasingly vulnerable to drought.

To inform this work, the British Geological Survey has developed a new framework to enable better estimation of groundwater resilience in Scotland. It helps to highlight those areas where groundwater is likely to be more, or less, resilient to future climate change.

This research has highlighted the risk of future water scarcity in Scotland and the potentially significant impact this could have on water users. Groundwater could form a key component of adaptation strategies, but more data and research is needed to understand how this can be achieved sustainably and equitably at a catchment scale.

Dr Kirsty Upton, BGS Senior Hydrogeologist.

Other recommendations from the research include:

• using more efficient irrigation methods
• avoiding the introduction of more water-demanding crops
• increasing water harvesting
• better storage of water during wetter months
• increased monitoring to allow for improved coordination of water resource-use across catchments
• a greater role for river catchment partnerships to coordinate use of water resources at landscape scale
• cross-sector coordination to prepare for future water extremes

provision of adaptation advice and funding

We found that, for many, water scarcity is already an increasing issue. At critical times of the year, even short periods of water shortage could lead to vegetable and fruit crop failure.

Some are already taking measures to adapt, particularly in the distilling sector, where technical advances could help reduce their need for water for cooling, but many could be at risk if they don’t take more action.

Our work suggests more information about resources would help them , as would information adaptation strategies they can take, as well as help funding these and collaborating across catchments over resources.

Dr Miriam Glendell, The James Hutton Institute.

The study, which was led by The James Hutton Institute, was commissioned by Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Water, which is based at the institute, with partners at Scotland’s Rural College, the University of Aberdeen and BGS.