Critical minerals underpin the UK’s economy, technology, energy transition and industrial resilience. Criticality assessments are widely used to identify the commodities with the highest risk of supply disruption and associated economic impacts. The resulting lists of ‘critical minerals’ increasingly guide national and regional strategies for investment, industrial development and supply-chain resilience.

In 2024, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by BGS, published its updated UK Criticality Assessment, supported by an improved and more transparent methodology. This assessment used available data covering the last five to ten years and was complemented by several foresight studies on key decarbonisation technologies and the UK’s demand for critical raw materials up to 2050.

, released by CMIC, evaluates a series of methodological enhancements through improved quantification of economic importance, including trade restrictions and expanded considerations for environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The report has been designed to help tailor future UK criticality assessments to the structure of the UK economy, its trade profile and strategic industrial sectors more closely. 

The report makes five recommendations that should be implemented into the next UK criticality assessment to add further value and benefit:

• better tracking of critical raw materials’ market stability and transparency
• three new indicators to improve measurement of the importance of materials to the UK economy and their flow through the whole domestic supply chain
• accounting for geopolitical risk in trade by considering any interventionist history of trading partners
• expansion of the supply-chain monitoring capacity to the midstream sector
• addition of climate vulnerability to the ESG indicator

Together, these enhancements will deliver a more comprehensive and policy-relevant understanding of criticality, particularly by improving the visibility of midstream supply-chain risks. For import-reliant nations like the UK that have limited upstream production, accurate tracking of intermediate and manufactured product flows is essential to understanding true supply dependencies and points of intervention.

The new indicators will be rigorously tested through sensitivity analyses in the next assessment cycle, including retrospective evaluation against 2024’s results. 

This report strengthens the UK’s critically assessment by integrating market dynamics, supply-chain interdependencies, geopolitical risks and climate vulnerabilities through multiple complementary indicators. Material flow characterisation strengthens trade-based indicators, while the integration of climate vulnerability into the ESG criteria addresses a critical gap with minimal methodological disruption. Corporate concentration and production forecasting were also evaluated and deemed to offer the best value for targeted, deep-dive analyses and potential stress-testing of industry supply chains, but data limitations prevent systematic application in criticality assessments.

The result is a more granular, evidence-based understanding of how different materials exhibit criticality, whether through market opacity, supply-chain centrality, geopolitical concentration, or climate exposure, enabling tailored intervention strategies matched to specific material risk profiles rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director of CMIC.

The Mineral Exploration and Investment Grants Act 1972 (MEIGA) provided a stimulus for mineral exploration in the UK. Under the Act, the Government’s Department of Trade and Industry gave grants for mineral exploration for non-ferrous metals, fluorspar, barium minerals and potash. Compiled largely during the 1970s and 1980s, reports detailing the exploration undertaken contain a rich variety of information, including geological mapping, soil and stream sediment geochemistry, geophysical surveys, drillcore logs and assay data.

Previously, these ‘MEIGA’ reports were only available to view in hard copy through BGS’s National Geoscience Data Centre (NGDC). In 2023, a digitisation programme, carried out in collaboration with the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), released an initial batch of over 200 . A further release of digitised reports this year (2026) has meant that an additional 660 reports have been added to the accessible collection, ensuring that data collected over forty years ago is openly available and newly relevant for identifying critical and precious metal resource potential within the UK.

The significance of this release is already being demonstrated in the Ardlochan area of south-west Scotland. At the end of 2025, completed a in the area, which discovered a large, vertical tube of broken rock (a ‘breccia pipe’ system) that was at least 140 m wide and rich in gold. The company then drew on MEIGA materials, originally generated by exploration companies Noranda Mining Limited and Phelps Dodge in the 1970s and 1980s, to complement its own surveys and recent drilling in order to target other sites of interest.

The MEIGA dataset for Ardlochan is already playing a key role in refining a new generation of exploration targets, especially those associated with gold-rich porphyry–breccia systems. A major advantage of the datasets is that they capture Ardlochan at a time when the area was largely unforested. This allowed for far more detailed bedrock mapping than is possible today and provides a clearer geological framework from which to work.

Just as importantly, the reports offer insight into the exploration concepts and decision making used by major operators in the 1970s and 1980s. These companies invested heavily in systematic regional work, identifying features and prospects that were subsequently forgotten as corporate priorities shifted. Integrating these historic insights with modern techniques is enabling us to rebuild the geological story of Ardlochan and accelerate target development with a level of confidence that would not otherwise be possible.

Calum Lyell, Western Gold Exploration.

Exploration can be very expensive and uncertain, often requiring companies to repeat baseline surveys to establish context. By providing open access to MEIGA reports, BGS (through CMIC and the NGDC) is helping to reduce duplicate efforts, enabling more targeted investment. For smaller firms, this pre-competitive data supports innovation and lowers barriers to entry.

The digitisation of BGS archive documents is a major effort in valorising legacy datasets that can have a major impact at minimal cost for the exploration sector. We are continuously working towards refining accessibility to these documents, notably applying various machine learning methods to automate the extraction of data contained in these pages to make them publicly available, as well as developing large language models for personalised, one-to-one interaction with the archived volumes.

Pierre Josso, deputy director, CMIC.

For the National Geoscience Data Centre, the renewed impact of the MEIGA archive demonstrates exactly why long‑term stewardship of geoscience data matters. Historic materials only realise their full value when they are preserved, digitised and made accessible. Funding the systematic scanning of these legacy collections is essential not only to safeguard the record, but also to ensure that insights captured decades ago can actively inform modern exploration, reduce duplication of effort and unlock new scientific and economic opportunities. The success at Ardlochan shows that well‑curated archives don’t just tell the story of past work; they directly enable the discoveries of today.

Alison Steven, data operations and governance lead, NGDC at BGS.

Demand for critical minerals is rapidly increasing in response to the global transition to net zero, with UK demand for lithium predicted to quadruple by 2050. To secure future supply, the UK has set ambitious recycling targets for critical minerals.

New analysis from the , hosted by the British Geological Survey (BGS), provides a detailed assessment of the UK’s future demand and secondary supply availability for the key technology metals that are required for green energy technologies and electric transportation.

By 2035, the Government aims to meet 20 per cent of annual critical mineral demand through , also known as secondary supply or the circular economy. However, the new research also highlights that, within this timeframe, only a small number of critical minerals used in photovoltaic technologies are expected to be found in sufficient quantities to theoretically reach or exceed this ambition. The prospects improve dramatically, however, when the timescale is extended out to 2050, as increasing availability of end-of-life material is forecast to meet or exceed domestic demand for several critical minerals.

The assessment found that, between 2040 and 2050, ‘secondary’ raw material availability could provide:

• more than 60 per cent of the cumulative demand for battery metals
• more than 85 per cent of the cumulative demand for the rare earth elements (REEs) used in magnets (neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium)
• more than 90 per cent of the cumulative demand for silver and 75 per cent for tin used in photovoltaics (solar panels)

Although secondary supply has the potential to offset primary demand after 2040, the rapid growth of electric vehicles, wind turbines and photovoltaics means that, in the short term, primary supply (that is extracted directly from the ground) will remain essential to meet growth sectors, fill supply gaps and account for unavoidable material losses or non-recovery. This includes continued reliance on imports of lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper and REEs, and highlights the importance of supply chain diversification, responsible sourcing and strategic international partnerships. 

The report highlights that investment, capacity building, development of reverse supply chains and further data supporting the circular economy will be required to support the UK’s transition toward secure, resilient supplies of critical minerals and technology metals and to realise the long-term supply potential available through recovery and recycling.

This study demonstrates that secondary supply of technology metals has the potential to become a major contributor to UK material security. Our research shows that several elements will approach or exceed anticipated domestic demand by mid-century.

However, realising this potential will depend on several factors, including clear policy direction on technology metals recovery, investment in recycling and refining infrastructure and the development of integrated reverse supply chains and skilled labour.

Primary supply will remain essential but, with timely and coordinated action, the UK can build a more resilient, circular and secure critical materials system capable of supporting its 2050 net zero ambitions.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, principal mineral commodity expert at BGS.

The report ‘’ is available to download from the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre website.

Today (23 November 2025), the UK Government published its for the UK. The strategy recognises the UK’s need to further develop links with international partners, increase domestic production where feasible and invest in the circular economy. This strategy provides a tangible blueprint for these ambitions – now accurate, real-time minerals data will be essential in supporting the Government in its objectives.  

The UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC), hosted by the British Geological Survey (BGS), launched in 2022 with support from the Department of Business and Trade. CMIC informs UK decision makers to enable the securing of adequate, timely and sustainable supplies of critical minerals. This will ensure that the UK can transition its economy in the coming decades to meet challenges such as achieving net zero emissions and realising the Government’s industrial strategy and economic growth agenda.

The geopolitical picture in 2025 demonstrates a complex, unpredictable and interconnected world. Establishing secure supply chains of critical and growth minerals to achieve the UK’s economic aspirations has never been more important. The country’s ambitions in relation to the energy transition, economic growth, security and digital agendas, are directly connected to reliable access to these resources.

Dr Gavin Mudd of BGS and director of the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC)

Almost all critical minerals are currently imported, meaning it is important to understand the complex global supply chains that deliver them. CMIC’s mission is to analyse those supply chains and provide impartial and objective advice that helps the UK secure sustainable supplies of critical minerals for its various industries. In 2024, CMIC’s UK Criticality Assessment revealed the vulnerability of the UK’s economy to supply disruption for specific minerals. The analysis was designed to support policymakers in building economic resilience and securing the minerals that are important to the country’s growth aspirations and national security. CMIC has played a crucial role in informing this new Government strategy.

Hosted by BGS, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) has quantified UK demand requirements and global supply challenges up to 2050 for 36 materials important to nine technologies essential to decarbonisation and the energy transition:

• batteries
• electrolysers
• fuel cells
• grid infrastructure
• heat pumps
• nuclear
• photovoltaics
• traction motors
• wind turbines

This has highlighted the vulnerability of the UK in competing for a secure and reliable supply of critical resources.

The newly released foresight studies project that, by 2030, the UK is expected to require between 15 and 40 per cent of current global lithium production and between 10 and 29 per cent of current global graphite production. Compared to 2020 levels, UK demand in 2030 for lithium is expected to increase by between 12 and 45 times the current demand, while graphite demand is projected to grow by between 34 and 43 times. Both materials are essential for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, which power electric vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage systems.

Ensuring a secure and stable supply for these materials presents a major challenge. To meet the global demand forecasted by the International Energy Agency, lithium supply alone would need to increase by 32 times by 2030, highlighting the pressure on supply chains and the urgency for secure, diversified, resilient and responsible supply.

The foresight studies, commissioned by the Department for Business & Trade, identified risks that could see bottlenecks in material supply due to limited UK-based supply chains, a reliance on international markets and growing global competition, all of which could have a detrimental impact on the economy.

The approach taken to quantify demand for specific technologies, while also providing a comprehensive overview across various decarbonisation technologies, is unique. This methodology enables the UK to make strategic decisions to enhance the security of the supply chains these technologies depend on.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, foresight study lead at CMIC.

Batteries have been identified as the decarbonisation technology that will see the fastest demand growth in the UK, which will have a knock-on-effect on the amount of materials, including graphite, nickel, lithium, cobalt and manganese, needed to meet this demand. Heat pumps, traction motors and wind turbines will drive demand for copper and rare earth elements (REEs). UK demand for REEs is expected to peak around 2030, before stabilising at approximately 5 per cent of current global supply by 2040, which underscores the critical need for new supply streams to be operational by 2030.

The can be found on the CMIC website, as can the UK Critical Minerals Assessment, which was released in November 2024.

Hosted by BGS and supported by the Department for Business & Trade (DBT), the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) delivers authoritative, impartial and independent, up-to-date data, information and analysis about critical minerals for the UK’s economy.

CMIC’s second conference, which took place on Wednesday 26 February 2025, showcased and provided the opportunity to discuss the research and analysis that CMIC has delivered. The 2025 UK was one of the main topics of the event. The report builds on robust, CMIC-developed methodology and was released at the end of 2024. Thirty-four minerals are classified as critical, providing foundations for future UK policy and investment, as well as for foresight studies highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chains of minerals critical to the growth of decarbonisation technologies in the UK to 2050.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director, opened the conference by providing an overview of current supply risks for critical minerals and the role BGS and its wider minerals research can play.

The supply of minerals is essential to our economy and society and security of supply has never been more important. The work of CMIC and the wider BGS is important in addressing many of the challenges that we currently face. Through our role hosting CMIC, we continue to build on and expand our legacy expertise and provide impartial knowledge, data and research to Government and industry.

Dr Karen Hanghøj, BGS Director.

Sarah Jones MP, Minister of State for Industry at DBT, then provided a virtual address, acknowledging the substantial increase in the supply of critical minerals required to meet the growing demand.

This second CMIC conference is a great opportunity to reflect on the research released since the first conference in 2023. Both criticality assessments and foresight studies play important roles in understanding supply risk and in advising industry and Government. We understand which minerals are critical and, looking ahead, evaluate to what extent the UK can meet the demand needed for economic growth, decarbonisation and national security.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

Dr Pierre Josso, deputy director at CMIC, presented key findings from the UK 2024 criticality assessment. Dr Evi Petavratzi, senior mineral commodity expert at BGS, looked ahead to the UK’s future as she spoke about the outcomes of the CMIC foresight studies. The foresight studies estimate which materials will be required by decarbonisation technologies to meet the UK’s net zero goals and highlight the challenges faced in meeting demand. An expert panel discussion around foresight studies capped the morning agenda.

In the afternoon there were two expert panels: the first discussed the UK critical minerals strategy and policy, whilst the second discussed the future of CMIC. Simon Thompson, BGS Board member, then brought the conference to a close, reinforcing the great value that CMIC’s research work brings to the UK Government and policymaking around critical minerals.

The is out.

Commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) ahead of the launch of their new Critical Minerals Strategy in 2025, the report is intended to evaluate the risk of disruption to the supply of minerals of key economic importance.

The outcome may not be one that everyone expected. It may even raise some eyebrows, as such assessments have done elsewhere in the world, and it will hopefully spark further scientific and policy discussion. I certainly hope it does.

Across the world, industry groups and active lobbies have championed the introduction of a particular material to such criticality lists, perceiving perhaps the ‘critical’ designation as a mark of prestige or privilege within an economy. Some have called on scientists to change their findings, to varying levels of success.

Our assessment identifies copper as not critical. This will likely, and understandably, be the focus of much attention — much as its omission in the 2023 USA assessment was. In similar lists focused on economies across the EU, Japan, India, China, Canada and now the USA, copper is identified as critical. Under the methodology within our report, the material did not meet the necessary threshold, as with Australia’s latest assessment.

This is why it is important to understand the difference in definition between ‘essential’, ‘important’ and ‘critical’. The commodities evaluated as part of this assessment were selected precisely because of their significant importance to the UK economy, but for a mineral to be ‘critical’ it must be both important and subject to a significant supply risk.

The UK is reliant on international supply for most of the 82 assessed materials at the heart of this report, with 49 of them predominately provided through imports. The competition for certain minerals is increasing by the day: for example, global demand for lithium is expected to increase more than tenfold by 2050 to support the net zero energy transition.

This assessment is built on robust data. It is a snapshot of the UK’s present need, our current supply chains, and demand drive estimated by consumption and existing policy. This is a steadfast, impartial and empirical point from which decision makers can progress conversations around our future needs. 

I see criticality as an ever-changing status in response to conditions. The ebb and flow of technological advancements, consumer demand, market forces, the drive for renewable energy sources and the geopolitical environment: all play a role in shaping demand and increasing the risks around supply.

Copper is an important and essential mineral to the UK economy. It has diversified uses, including power and electricity, telecommunications and digital technologies, as well as chemicals and infrastructure. Every home, office, factory and vehicle across the UK draws value from the use of copper every day. However, the 2024 UK Criticality Assessment aims to identify the minerals for which the UK economy is currently most vulnerable. In simple terms, this means those minerals that have a higher risk of supply disruption and could prompt significant economic upheaval for the UK should a disruption occur.

Against that measure, based on the scientific data used in our report, copper is not critical. Through available data, projections of refined copper production can be judged likely to meet copper demand for the relevant policies and announced pledges scenarios.

This assessment recognises that concerns around the capacity to increase global copper mine supply may lead to an increased global supply risk and, in turn, result in copper becoming critical in the future. When the data shows this point is reached, such assessments will reflect it. The dynamic nature of criticality also mean we need other types of assessments and studies, for example forecasting studies for certain minerals, and CMIC is already planning several of these.

This report lives and dies by its adherence to a methodology that is impartial. In my eyes, it is a good thing that there appears a conscious effort to meet the global demand for copper. This is an indication that the global supply chain currently produces this essential material with a sound balance between supply and demand. With the UK seeking to enhance the National Grid to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable energy and electric vehicle charging capability, this country is clearly going to need a lot of it. 

To meet global net zero greenhouse gas emission targets by 2050, we will need to increase copper mine supply by about 2 per cent above existing trends. Whilst this does not sound like much, it is recognised that there are challenges faced by the copper sector such as declining ore grades, water resources issues (for example, scarcity), and the increasing difficulty of developing large new copper projects.

This assessment is intended to stimulate discussion and allow us as a country to continue to plan effectively for the future of our economy and its place within an increasingly sophisticated and interconnected global supply chain. That discussion should be vigorous and impassioned; disagreement is an inevitable outcome. I look forward to taking part in such conversations.

I would invite all to see real success in terms of what the next criticality assessment might contain. A shorter list will be a clear indication that the UK has been successful in mitigating supply risk.

The latest UK Criticality Assessment, , focuses on the vulnerability to supply disruption of minerals in an increasingly diversified UK economy. The analysis is intended to support policymakers in building economic resilience and securing minerals of importance to the UK economy and national security.

Critical minerals are essential in a wide range of products we rely on for our energy, transportation, home and work lives, defence and health care. The assessment was commissioned by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) as part of the CMIC programme for 2024.

Criticality assessments are similar to risk assessments in that they aim to produce an evaluation of the potential for the disruption of the supply of minerals and the resulting economic impact. Indicators are quantified from a range of relevant metrics derived from reliable and publicly available data. Through this methodology, the assessment provides insights on the various factors that contribute to supply risk.

The assessment builds on data used in a range of areas, including:

• diplomatic efforts to secure stable trade relationships
• supporting improved recycling capabilities as part of a more circular economy
• further investment in exploration, mining and processing
• the pursuit of alternative materials

Dr Gavin Mudd, director of the Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre, said that the assessment demonstrates the increasingly complex supply chains the UK relies on to support its economic activity.

This assessment confirms that the growing diversification of the UK economy — alongside the expanding reliance on global trade — brings an increasing vulnerability in terms of disruption to the supply of critical minerals.

There are similarities to other criticality assessment lists across the world, but the demands and challenges facing the UK economy are dynamic and we need to match the demand for minerals with sustainable and reliable supply.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

I welcome the Critical Mineral Intelligence Centre’s assessment, which shows a sustainable supply of critical minerals will be more vital than ever.

That’s why next year we’ll launch a new Critical Minerals Strategy to help secure our supply chains for the long term and drive forward the green industries of the future.

Sarah Jones MP, Industry Minister.

UK Criticality Assessment 2024: 10 most critical minerals

The finds that 34 minerals out of the 82 candidate materials assessed are ‘critical’. This is an increase relative to the 2021 assessment, where only 26 candidate materials were assessed and 18 assessed as critical.

Of the 18 minerals classed as critical on the 2021 list, 17 remain critical in this new assessment — palladium is now below the criticality threshold — whilst notable additions in 2024 include nickel, iron, germanium, aluminium and chromium (plus others). The new list reflects the increased scope of assessment and the advances in the methodology used.

Dr Gavin Mudd, the director of CMIC, says the study has highlighted the diverse UK economy, driven by clean energy technology like wind turbines and electric vehicles and an increase in advanced manufacturing applications.

In particular, as the UK continues its efforts in decarbonisation of its economy, we are seeing significant shifts in numerous minerals as coal-fired power has now been closed and new technologies are being used. This brings both benefits and risks to the UK.

Dr Gavin Mudd, CMIC Director.

The report highlights several issues that should be the focus of further consideration.

Technology-driven mineral demand

The pursuit of new energy and transport technologies lies at the heart of decarbonisation efforts and is creating significant demand for additional critical minerals. These include the use of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles or rare earth elements used in the permanent magnets in drive trains for electric vehicles and wind turbines. Other sectors fueling technical advances through the use of critical minerals includes aerospace and defence, which require specialist alloys that can withstand extreme conditions, whilst the rise in the use of artificial intelligence and the linked demand on large data centres has also prompted a considerable increase in the demand for minerals with a high criticality score within the assessment.

Ä¢¹½ÊÓƵÍøÕ¾ effects on mineral demand

With an intrinsic link between climate change and the extraction of minerals, the drive to achieve net zero commitments and the transition towards a low-carbon society, reducing our carbon emissions and our dependence on fossil fuels will require a greater global supply of minerals. It is recognised that the manufacture of technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles is a mineral-intensive process and, as such, the mineral demand for these clean energy technologies is anticipated to increase significantly. Some estimates suggest a quadrupling of demand by 2040 in a scenario in which net zero carbon emissions are achieved by 2050. Clean energy technologies are the predominant driver of growth in demand for many critical minerals.  

Trade regulations and global supply risks

Trade regulations can significantly disrupt global critical mineral supply chains and trade, therefore carrying the potential to cause shortages and price volatility. The extent of any disruption on the supply of critical minerals would depend on the nature of the regulations, their timing and the duration of their application. As the UK economy is demonstrably more vulnerable to disruption in the flow of key materials from international markets, it is also more vulnerable to the effects of global trade measures and regulations. Furthermore, the UK’s critical minerals refining and manufacturing capacity being in its nascent stages potentially heightens this vulnerability.

Recycling potential

The ability to employ recycling as a means to bolster supply for the candidate materials assessed in this study varies significantly, ranging from zero to a maximum of 95 per cent. The UK imports and exports waste and scrap flows for a range of materials, derived from related processing and manufacturing activities. Overall, the area of recycling needs a greater capacity to synthesise data, monitor material flows through the economy and explore opportunities to improve the circularity of the UK economy.

Climate change and its impact on global supply risks

Climate change poses significant risks to the global supply of critical metals and minerals needed for clean energy technologies and the transition to a low-carbon economy. At present, it is causing more frequent extreme weather events than ever before, such as drought, heat, flooding and changing precipitation patterns. All these events have a direct impact on mining operations and minerals processing and transportation. Climate change risks could potentially impede the trajectory of clean energy transitions if the supply of critical metals cannot meet rapidly growing demand, and may have a significant impact on the economy’s ability to implement low-carbon technologies like solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries.

The full UK 2024 criticality assessment is available to download through the CMIC website.